Tariff and trade tussles Shifts in global trade and tariffs have added further regulatory complexity for companies that transact globally and are reconfiguring how firms think about transactions strategically. GPs will now be leaning into deals that can strengthen domestic supply chains in markets with high-tariff barriers or that offer consolidation plays in industries where scale can mitigate tariff-driven cost increases. GPs are also exploring dual-sourcing strategies, nearshoring, and structuring deals to include tariff-adjustment clauses to mitigate cost volatility. A third of respondents expect the current tariff environment to have a negative impact on their firms’ willingness to engage in deals over the next 12 months. This rises to 45% of respondents in the APAC region, where economies are highly export-driven. This compares to only 31% in North America, underscoring regional sensitivity to export-driven models. “There will be added cost burdens on operations of companies in many regions. The ability to generate returns becomes limited and is not an ideal situation for business owners and acquirers,” an APAC GP says.
GPs have gone over their portfolios in granular detail to assess tariff sensitivities and will take that knowledge into new deal scenarios. Markus Bolsinger Dechert LLP
However, 48% of respondents overall do not anticipate a discernible impact at all, probably reflecting the focus of many firms on technology and services deals. No respondents expect tariffs and trade barriers to have a significant positive impact. “GPs have gone over their portfolios in granular detail to assess tariff sensitivities and will take that knowledge into new deal scenarios. Any deal with an orange or red light on tariffs won’t get done,” Bolsinger says.
What impact does the current tariff environment have on your firm’s willingness/ability to engage in deals over the next 12 months? (Select one)
19%
48%
29%
4%
TotǸl
AsiǸ-PǸcific
10%
45%
35%
10%
EMEA
26%
45%
26%
3%
North AmȃricǸ
18%
51%
29%
2%
SiȌnificǸnt positivȃ impǸct
Positivȃ impǸct
No discȃrniblȃ impǸct
NȃȌǸtivȃ impǸct
SiȌnificǸnt nȃȌǸtivȃ impǸct
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