2026 Dechert PE Outlook Report: Signs of a Gradual Thaw

Introduction

Number of global buyout deals, 2020–Q3 2025

PE dealmakers faced a challenging macroeconomic backdrop in 2025, but despite tariff volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, buyout value has made double-digit gains year-on-year. Global buyout deal value totaled US$965.8 billion for Q1–Q3 2025, a 30% increase on the US$742.3 billion secured during the first three quarters of 2024. However, buyout dealmaking felt the effects of U.S. Liberation Day tariff announcements at the beginning of April. PE managers retrenched in the second quarter as capital markets around the world digested the impact of new trading arrangements. But activity as measured by deal value rallied strongly in Q3 2025, recording US$415.8 billion worth of transactions to rank as the best quarter for deal value since the bull market of mid-2021. “The environment remains challenging but there are deals to be done. GPs are being more selective about the deals they pursue and are being more creative and thoughtful when structuring those deals to work around valuation gaps,” says Maria Tan Pedersen, co-head of Dechert’s Emerging Markets practice. Interest rate cuts in the UK and Europe and more recently in the U.S., as well as active syndicated loan and private debt markets and the growing pressure on PE firms to deploy US$1.2 trillion of dry powder stockpiles, have helped balance out tariff and geopolitical headwinds and keep buyout deployment on an upward trajectory. Of note, though, the increase in buyout deal value has come despite a decline in deal volume, with the number of buyouts falling from 7,791 over the first nine months of 2024 to 6,961 deals during the same period in 2025. In an uncertain market, buyout firms have focused their efforts on backing large companies with the scale and revenues to ride out short- to mid-term volatility and offer protection against downside risk. The announcement of the US$56.6 billion acquisition of video gaming company Electronic Arts (EA) by a PE consortium including Silver Lake, Affinity Partners and PIF is a clear example of how megadeals have helped boost overall value in 2025. Jumbo transactions have also provided a much-needed boost for exit values, with big-ticket sales to strategic buyers, such as Global Payments’ acquisition of a 55% stake in Worldpay from GTCR and FIS for US$24.25 billion and Insight Partners’ US$5.1 billion sale of software group Dotmatics to Siemens, helping to more than double year-on- year exit value.

12,000

2,390

10,000

2,366

2,209

2,909

8,000

2,520

2,525

2,205

6,000

2,188

2,298

2,962

4,000

2,688

2,577

2,367

1,644

2,169

1,148 723 961

2,000

3,584

2,578

2,547

2,406

2,092

0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4

Value of global buyout deals, 2020–Q3 2025

1,800

1,600

ș398.9

1,400

1,200

ș433.6

1,000

ș152.2

ș289.3

800

ș196.0

ș415.8

ș226.8

600

ș299.9

ș461.5

ș326.8

ș233.7

ș264.0

ș175.4

400

ș162.8 ș99.5 ș141.6

ș269.4

ș159.0

200

ș361.9

ș356.2

ș286.0

ș173.1

ș162.7

0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4

4

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