Antitrust and national security
These dynamics have put merger control enforcement firmly on the radar for GPs. Nearly half (47%) of the survey participants expect a negative impact from the “politicization” of merger control enforcement. This rises to 50% of APAC respondents and 49% of their North American counterparts, with a quarter of EMEA respondents (26%) expecting a significantly negative impact on dealmaking plans. “Antitrust risk is very much on the radar for GPs, many of whom are now pulling forward regulatory mapping to build a picture on whether a deal will face merger control or national security review risk,” Bolsinger says. “Even before GPs receive the book for a prospective deal, they will have done work on antitrust and have a clear picture of which jurisdictions and industries will be the most affected.”
Antitrust, merger controls and national security regulations, as well as sanction regimes and export controls, are reframing the investment landscape for GPs and having a direct impact on dealmaking. Antitrust issues Competition authorities are better resourced and more proactive, with greater scope to review a wider pool of deals. Figures from the latest OECD Competition Trends report show that budgets and staff numbers at competition authority agencies are growing, that the number of cartel investigations is increasing, and that although merger notifications are decreasing, the share of mergers cleared with remedies is at its highest threshold since 2017. The global antitrust backdrop is also more complex. The U.S. and the EU show signs of divergence on antitrust priorities, with U.S. scrutiny continuing under the Trump administration, while the UK has shifted its competition enforcement focus to the impact of deals domestically.
How do you expect the “politicization” of merger control enforcement (with increased focus on strong domestic industries) to impact your firm’s dealmaking plans over the next 12 months? (Select one)
13%
39%
27%
20%
TotǸl
1%
AsiǸ-PǸcific
10%
40%
35%
15%
EMEA
3%
14%
40%
17%
26%
North AmȃricǸ
13%
38%
31%
18%
SiȌnificǸnt positivȃ impǸct
Positivȃ impǸct
No discȃrniblȃ impǸct
NȃȌǸtivȃ impǸct
SiȌnificǸnt nȃȌǸtivȃ impǸct
39
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