2026 Dechert PE Outlook Report: Signs of a Gradual Thaw

EMEA spotlight

Number of EMEA buyout deals, 2020–Q3 2025

Buyout deal activity has remained steady through the first three quarters of 2025, with overall deal value showing year-on-year gains since 2023, even as deal volume dropped. For the first three quarters of 2025 (YTD) total buyout value came in at US$253.7 billion – above the US$214.4 billion total for the first three quarters of 2024 and the US$225.5 billion posted for the whole of 2023. Deal volume for the first three quarters of the year slipped to 2,320 deals in 2025 from 2,791 transactions in 2024 and 2,674 deals over the same period in 2023. Buyout firms in the region have upped deployment despite a challenging backdrop for EMEA businesses, which have had to contend with sizeable tariff increases on exports into the U.S., Europe’s largest export market, as well as political uncertainty on the domestic front, with an election in Germany at the start of the year and a hung finance bill in France. As the year has progressed, however, dealmakers have adapted to the fluid macro context and have also benefited from a series of interest rate cuts in the UK and Europe. European dealmakers have also benefited from a strong appetite to accelerate deployment in the region. U.S.-based private markets giant Apollo, for example, has signaled that it could invest as much as US$100 billion into Germany alone over the next decade. “The market hasn’t snapped back the way that dealmakers were anticipating at the start of the year, but there is a recovery in activity. PE firms are building an understanding of where the uncertainties lie and are able to price and transact on that basis,” Tomlinson says. Sector watch The TMT sector was the most active vertical for buyout value for the first three quarters of 2025 (YTD), even though the total dropped year-on-year, from US$74.5 billion in Q1-Q3 2024 to US$63 billion over the same period in 2025. Despite the year-on-year drop, the long-term drivers of TMT dealmaking remain positive, with growing uptake of AI applications across all sectors, as well as investment in associated AI infrastructure, expected to provide a firm foundation for ongoing TMT M&A. In addition, a group of around 20 global buyout firms, including Blackstone, CVC, EQT and Warburg Pincus, have pledged to invest more than €150 billion (US$175 billion) in AI-related projects in Europe during the next five years.

4,000

3,500

829

858

916

862

3,000

822

2,500

917

953

845

2,000

716

1,019

707

1,500

960

945

916

773

1,000

480

1,130

290

500

914

884

852

831

376

0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4

Value of EMEA buyout deals, 2020–Q3 2025

600

500

ș100.1

400

ș130.4

ș41.3 ș46.6

300

ș72.1

200

ș111.6

ș70.7

ș153.0

ș65.5

ș143.7

ș99.1

ș53.2 ș36.7

ș72.6

ș50.0

100

ș105.3

ș116.3

ș107.7

2023 ș49.5 ș26.9

ș69.5

ș64.8

ș43.6

0

2020

2021

2022

2024

2025

Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4

30

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