2026 Dechert PE Outlook Report: Signs of a Gradual Thaw

PE buyout value by sector in North America (US$ million), Q1-Q3 2025 vs. Q1-Q3 2024

data centers and the computing power AI companies require to operate.

TMT

Other sectors that have seen large year-on-year gains in buyout deal value include financial services, consumer and pharma, medical and biotech (PMB). In the financial services sector, value for the first three quarters more than doubled from US$34 billion in 2024 to US$78.6 billion in 2025. Rising compliance and regulatory costs are driving consolidation across financial services as companies seek scale through acquisition, providing firms with buy-and-build investment opportunities. Buyout firms are also seeing opportunities to invest in the ongoing digitalization of financial services, backing fintech businesses that can be exited to banks, asset managers and insurers building up their digital capabilities through acquisition. The consumer sector has seen value rise more than threefold for the first three quarters, growing from US$14.5 billion in 2024 to US$44.4 billion in 2025. Sizeable deals such as 3G Capital’s take-private of footwear company Skechers for US$9.4 billion have inflated value in a sector that has been challenged by elevated interest rates and cost-of-living pressures. The megadeals in the sector, however, demonstrate that sponsors with specialist consumer expertise see opportunities to invest in high-quality brands at attractive valuations. The PMB space has also shown steady gains in value, which climbed from US$31.6 billion for the first three quarters of 2024 to US$40.3 billion over the same period in 2025. Large deals, such as Sycamore Partners’ take-private of Walgreens Boots Alliance, as well as drivers such as growing patient demand for behavioral care, consolidation in the laboratory and diagnostics segment and growth in the contract resource organization (CRO) market, have also supported rising value. Outlook Moving into 2026, the outlook is broadly positive. In October, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time since the end of 2024, with further cuts slated for the coming months, while the S&P 500 has been trading at record highs in 2025 and is showing gains of more than 14% for the 12 months to 12 November 2025. Lower base rates will bring down acquisition financing costs, while resilient stock markets will give reassurance on valuations. The backdrop for North American dealmaking, however, remains complex, with tariff and government policy uncertainty still very much on GPs’ radars. Deals can be done, but will need flexible structuring, a rigorous approach to identifying potential buyers, and longer deal timelines. “Deal activity in North America should continue to improve, but the increase will be gradual, rather than everyone jumping into the market all at once,” Bolsinger says.

ș288,663

ș195,741

FinǸnciǸl Sȃrvicȃs

ș78,582

ș33,957

EnȃrȌy, MininȌ & Utilitiȃs

ș59,534

ș25,064

Consumȃr

ș44,405

ș14,511

PhǸrmǸ, MȃdicǸl & Biotȃch

ș40,315

ș31,561

IndustriǸls & ChȃmicǸls

ș38,970

ș25,274

Lȃisurȃ

ș17,194

ș31,340

Businȃss Sȃrvicȃs

ș16,067

ș30,025

RȃǸl EstǸtȃ

ș4,201

ș15,072

TrǸnsportǸtion

ș3,546

ș432

Dȃfȃnsȃ ș1,285 ș185

Construction

ș1,196

ș7,909

AȌriculturȃ

ș662 ș685

Govȃrnmȃnt

ș580 ș250

Othȃr

ș23 ș0

Q1-Q3 2025 Q1-Q3 2024

25

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